The US consumer confidence index fell to its lowest reading in four years, new data released Tuesday showed, as Americans face higher costs and fret the fallout of US President Donald Trump’s trade policy.

Another metric that measures Americans’ expectations about the economy’s future also reached a 12-year low. The findings show how Trump’s tariffs, the trade war, and market volatility have begun to weigh on households, as economists warn of rising odds of a recession. Consumers are also facing sticky inflation and high borrowing costs.

The US Federal Reserve forecasts only two interest rate cuts this year, while the Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic told Bloomberg Tuesday that he now sees just one owing to slowing progress on inflation.

SIGNALS

CFOs are also worried about the economy

It’s not just consumers: C-suite executives are growing more pessimistic about the US economy’s future, too. In a recent CNBC survey of chief financial officers, 60% say they expect a recession in the second half of 2025 — up from just 7% who anticipated a 2025 recession in the previous survey. A sizable majority predict higher inflation, and said Trump’s unpredictable policy approach is impacting decision-making: “Complete chaos, without an end game strategy,” one CFO said, though another was hopeful things would calm down after Trump’s first 100 days. Their wariness is a vast contrast from the animal spirits that defined the three months post-election.